NRL: The run-in to September

The final surge for the top eight in the National Rugby League premiership begins this weekend with a number of blockbuster match-ups still to look forward to before this season’s finals series.

It looks likely that the top two spots on the ladder will be occupied by two Queensland teams, which hasn’t been seen for some time, while the rear end of the eight is far from settled.

For one of the tightest competition ladders in some time, let’s take a look at the run-in NRL fixtures before finals footy September.

 

CURRENT TOP 8

1^st - Brisbane Broncos – 34 pts

Last 6 games: Sea Eagles (A), Bulldogs (H), Dragons (H), Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (A), Storm (H)
Predicted finish: 1st


With a near full-strength line-up to choose from, it should be smooth sailing for the Brisbane Broncos, who continue to dominate the competition. Just when you think the Brisbane team get under a bit of strife from their opponents, there always seems to be one player that turns the game on its head whether it is playmakers Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford, or the rejuvenated fullback Darius Boyd. Coach Wayne Bennett looks like he has created another premiership team with a near-perfect balance of youth and experience throughout the squad. But with four out of six games against teams already in the eight, the Broncos biggest test is still yet to come.

2^nd - North Queensland Cowboys – 32 pts
Last 6 games: Raiders (H), Sharks (A), Rabbitohs (H), Warriors (A), Storm (A), Titans (H).

Predicted finish: 2^nd


Dally M medallist favourite and Cowboys halfback Johnathan Thurston has been nothing short of his best this season developing one of, if not the best halves pairing in the league with Michael Morgan. Morgan made his Maroons debut this year with the winning Queensland side, which served to be no mistake as the Cowboys five-eighth slotted in seamlessly. With just the Rabbitohs and an away trip to Melbourne to deal with, the Cowboys should secure their top-two position with little difficulty, especially if they stay clear of injury.

3^rd - Sydney Roosters – 28 pts

Last 6 games: Bulldogs (H), Knights (A), Eels (H), Broncos (H), Sea Eagles (A), Souths (H)
Predicted finish: 3rd

The Sydney Roosters have no doubt gone a tad under the radar in the last few rounds with huge wins over the Wests Tigers, Warriors, and Panthers. The Chooks have put a total of 81 points on the board and conceded only 12 points in its last three games. Coach Trent Robinson has got his side firing in all cylinders at the business end of the season and I cannot see them slipping up in their bid for a top-four spot. It’s hard to believe that halfback Mitchell Pearce has already clocked up 200 first-grade games, and the 26-year-old has to be one of the many level-headed players in the squad that will be required to step up for the run-in. The Roosters can go seven in a row if they can defeat the Bulldogs tonight.

4^th - South Sydney Rabbitohs – 26 pts

Last 6 games: Panthers (H), Sea Eagles (A), Cowboys (A), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (H), Roosters (A)
Predicted finish: 5th


Souths put on 52 points last week against the helpless Newcastle Knights after thrashing the Dragons 24-8 the week before. Like the Roosters, it seems the Bunnies know when to click at the right time and although there position in the ladder is quite clear, I am not ruling out the Redfern-based side for a chance to claim back-to-back titles. With fullback Greg Inglis flying at the moment, it is difficult to find a team outside of the Broncos and Cowboys that contain the running giant. With the Panthers and Sea Eagles seeming like simple wins, the Souths should be on a roll when they come to face the top-end teams of the competition.

5^th - Melbourne Storm – 24 pts

Last 6 games: Wests Tigers (A), Titans (H), Sharks (A), Knights (H), Cowboys (H), Broncos (A)
Predicted finish: 4th

There is no doubt that the season-ending injury to fullback and superstar Billy Slater has titled the Melbourne Storm’s premiership hopes dramatically. But young Cameron Munster in place of Slater has shown signs of form in recent weeks. Coach Craig Bellamy has got his team defending like a brick wall and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than half of the teams struggle to break down the Storm defensive line. The Storm will be expected to beat the likes of the Tigers, Titans, Sharks, and Knights, which is why I guarantee them a spot in the eight. But come September, the Storm simply won’t have enough firepower to majorly disrupt the big guns of the league, even with the best hooker in the world, Cameron Smith, in the line-up.

 

6^th - Cronulla Sharks – 24 pts

Last 6 games: Warriors (A), Cowboys (H), Storm (H), Wests Tigers (H), Eels (A), Sea Eagles (H)
Predicted finish: 6th

The Cronulla Sharks have built themselves a reputation in the last few rounds as one helluva team to dismantle. They showed their finals worth with a gutsy, spirited victory against the Bulldogs literally in their backyard at Belmore Oval. Before then, the Sharkies notched up a 21-10 win over the Raiders in Canberra as well as a 28-8 thumping over the Dragons. Captain Paul Gallen seems to have got over his Blues Origin loss and it has showed in his recent performances on the pitch. I’m tipping the Sharks to maintain its place on the ladder but they will need at least one win against the odds to either the Cowboys or Storm to do so, as well as victories over the other four sides left.

7^th - Canterbury Bulldogs

Last 6 games: Roosters (A), Broncos (A), Titans (H), Rabbitohs (A), Knights (A), Warriors (H)
Predicted finish: 6^th


Just when we thought the Bulldogs had found their mojo after the 28-4 win over the Eels two weeks ago, they slip up in front of an epic crowd at Belmore last week against the Sharks. The Bulldogs have been at their best when Moses Mbye has been playing in the halves, which means Josh Reynolds should be either dropped or used as an impact player from the bench. The Doggies will have it tough in the next few weeks with games against the gun teams of the competition but I think there is enough experience there, particularly in the forwards, for a finals series berth.

8^th - New Zealand Warriors – 22 pts

Last 6 games: Sharks (H), Dragons (H), Panthers (A), Cowboys (H), Wests Tigers (A), Bulldogs (A)
Predicted finish: 10th

Unfortunately with the loss of halfback Shaun Johnson for the rest of the season, it is quite easy to discount the Warriors for any chance of holding its place in the eight. It is hard to argue against that Johnson is the light and flame of the Kiwi side and without him, the Warriors look lost with no spark in attack. The only way the Warriors may have a chance of doing something special is by taking four points from four against the Sharks and Dragons in their next consecutive home fixtures.

CHASERS

 

9^th – Canberra Raiders – 20 pts

Last 6 games: Cowboys (A), Wests Tigers (H), Sea Eagles (H), Titans (A), Panthers (H), Eels (A)

Predicted finish: 8^th

The Raiders have dealt with the loss of young half Sam Williams quite well with the seamless replacement of Josh McCrone coming into the picture. There is plenty of reason to be hopeful for if you’re a Raiders fan as Ricky Stuart seems to be starting to get the best of his players, especially with Blake Austin. The Raiders won’t come across too many obstacles in the coming weeks with more than half of its six fixtures against bottom-half sides. With Sam Williams to make a return come finals time, the Raiders have the potential to be the surprise package.

10^th – St George Illawarra Dragons – 20 pts

Last 6 games: Knights (H), Warriors (A), Broncos (A), Panthers (H), Titans (A), Wests Tigers (H)

Predicted finish: 11^th

The Dragons were considered one of the best defensive teams in the competition when they were sitting at the summit of the competition early in the season. Fast-forward a couple of months and the Dragons are the team in the worst form with seven losses on the trot. The only reason I consider them a chance at the eight is by looking at their final games with the Broncos looking the only unbeatable contest. It looks as if veteran five-eighth Benji Marshall has run out of legs too soon but if the Dragons can make the eight then calling it a miracle would be an understatement.

11^th – Manly Sea Eagles – 18 pts

Last 6 games: Broncos (H), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A), Eels (H), Roosters (H), Sharks (A)
Predicted finish: 9^th

With the imminent departure of coach Geoff Toovey confirmed at the end of the season, it will be interesting to see what kind of response his players give him this weekend at Brookvale against the competition leaders. The Sea Eagles had a great win across the Tasman against the Warriors last round and if they can cause a huge upset against the Broncos then they can realistically challenge for finals footy. On a night where Kieran Foran, Daly Cherry-Evans, and Brett Stuart play at their best, the Sea Eagles can beat any team. And the trio will have to be at that level when they take on the Souths and Raiders in the following weeks. However I think their bad points difference compared to their rivals may cost them in the end.